Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
17
1kṀ382
2026
33%
chance

Resolves YES if Eliezer's market

has a higher chance than the current (2023-09-27) 21%, someday in the third quarter of 2026. To avoid market distortions, I randomly chose the resolution date and put it in SHA-256 with some added "salt".
Here is the hash: 8571baa908bb59f421b05c8731ff418c3c3db2932719c1c2bd29b68c2cdfc8ce
This market closes on 2026-06-30.
I may resolve this market N/A if someone convinces me that it will predictably cause significant distortion to the primary market.

Technology
AI
Meta-Forecasting
Eliezer Yudkowsky
AI Doom
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1y

Like I said a month ago, all of the doom markets trend down over time.

1y

All of these doom markets seem to trend down over time, presumably because of normal people signing up for Manifold, as well as the obvious fact that doom continues to not have happened.

So even with his NA resolution, it seems virtually certain it will be lower.

1y

Does a single percent point count, or will you add some tolerance for noise?

1y

@Vincent Yes, single percent point will count. I'm open to hearing arguments why it shouldn't.

1y

@Metastable Either way is fine. The difference is how certain you can be it's a real change in opinion, rather than in translation from opinion to estimate. Then again, I'd be hard pressed to set a non-arbitrary tolerance.

I'll bet on the opinion change regardless.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules