Total number of countries Clade I monkeypox discovered in by the end of this year?
➕
Plus
18
Ṁ3209
Dec 31
27%
25 or less
30%
26-50
15%
51-75
11%
76-100
17%
101 or more

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/15/mpox-variant-clade-i-case-sweden

It seems that so far the Clade I mpox, a new more dangerous type of mpox, has been discovered in ~10 African countries, and, more recently, in Sweden and now also seemingly in Pakistan. What the total number of countries affected will be by the end of this year?

  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

    • Based on the following sources:

    • Clade I Mpox Outbreak Originating in Central Africa (CDC)

    • Mpox in the United States and Around the World: Current Situation (CDC)

    • List of affected countries:

    • Central African Republic

    • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    • Republic of the Congo

    • Burundi

    • Kenya

    • Rwanda

    • Uganda

    • Belgium

    • Canada

    • Germany

    • India

    • Oman

    • Pakistan

    • Sweden

    • Thailand

    • UK

    • US

    • Zambia

    • Zimbabwe

    • Cameroon

    • The market will be resolved to "25 or less".

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@traders guys, I'll...count the countries a bit later. (Happy New Year everyone!)

@traders ok, so, here is my attempt at counting the countries affected:

Here is two links I'd like to base my resolution on -

  1. Clade I Mpox Outbreak Originating in Central Africa (CDC)

  2. Mpox in the United States and Around the World: Current Situation (CDC)

So, according to those two articles, regarding the Mpox Clade I (including 1a and 1b), firstly there seems to be three endemic countries:

  1. Central African Republic

  2. Democratic Republic of the Congo

  3. Republic of the Congo

Then, well here is a screenshot from a link #2 above:

- so here is a list of additional countries affected:

  1. Burundi

  2. Kenya

  3. Rwanda

  4. Uganda

  5. Belgium

  6. Canada

  7. Germany

  8. India

  9. Oman

  10. Pakistan

  11. Sweden

  12. Thailand

  13. UK

  14. US

  15. Zambia

  16. Zimbabwe

- so now it's 19 in total. Now, there is also this paper that claims that there were some Clade I cases in Cameroon:

- so now it's 20 in total. I'm not sure I can find any countries missing here, so if everyone's OK with such list I'll resolve the market to "25 or less" soon. Btw there is also a wikipedia article, which, well, sort of confirms all this the way I see it.

edit: Ok hold on, according to this page Clade I was also discovered recently in Gabon, and was historically discovered in Sudan and South Sudan. Well it's still "25 or less"...

bought Ṁ50 YES

for very rough comparison: Covid was 188 countries (and territories) in 6 months…

I might be wrong, but from here I got that the previous Mpox epidemic affected 122 countries in total, and that’s in, like, a year? Though I gotta say I thought about making the answers increment a bit bigger, and, well, especially considering what they say about the increased infectiousness of this new mpox type, probably should have made things a bit different, now thinking about it…

yeah that looks right, this market will be fine once the people betting no on this market see it lol. I might just be too paranoid about it but seems like it’s gonna be pretty bad sadly.

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