MANIFOLD
What will my new novel be rated?
15
แน€1kแน€4.7k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
4.5 - 5
100%48%
4.5 - 5
3%
1 - 2.9
3%
3 - 3.9
47%
4 - 4.5

My upcoming novel, Red Heart, comes out on November 3rd. At the end of the year, I'll check the ratings on Amazon.com and Goodreads.com and resolve this market based on the score of whichever platform has more reviews. (In case of a tie, I'll average the scores.)

For context, my previous novels were rated 4.1, 4.2, and 3.6 on Goodreads. (Higher on Amazon, but Goodreads got more reviews.)

  • Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the rating is exactly 4.5 at resolution:

    • The creator will calculate to more decimals using individual star ratings

    • If it remains exactly 4.5 after calculation, both ranges containing 4.5 will resolve to 50%

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bought แน€50 NO

I made the dumb mistake setting up this market of including 4.5 in two ranges. If the Amazon (or Goodreads) page says '4.5' upon resolution, I'll be calculating it to more decimals using the individual star ratings. In the case it's exactly 4.5 I'll be resolving both ranges to 50%.๐Ÿ˜•

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