Given everything I see / know, I personally think 50% is a decently accurate valuation here.

@Math4Life2020 What is the cutoff prediction? And what if there is a tie?

@RaymondChristopherTanto I can't discuss APMO online, but either way, I'll probably be within +-2 of the cutoff.

If there's a tie, then a definitive tiebreaker algorithm (known to us) runs.

@121 oooooooooo

You can make IMO 2026 right? Good luck on that, I'm very optimistic there.

@nathanwei If I stay in high school, yes. Thank you!!!

@Math4Life2020 Did you already get into MIT?

You can also drop out of HS and take a gap year to study whatever you want but remain IMO eligible.

@nathanwei Yep.

Ok, makes sense. Not sure if my parents would let me, though.

@Math4Life2020 Are you currently a senior or junior?

oly full sweep so pr0

sweep sweep sweep

USAMO sweep? orz

why are there a lot of both YES and NO bets after the APMO? 😭

Good luck on USAMO!

@nathanwei Thanks!

admits

If you don't make IMO 2025, you will >90% make IMO 2026. You are eligible, right?

RMM day 1 provisional result 741?

@RaymondChristopherTanto Yes, but domestic regrading could do essentially anything to my P2 score.

@Math4Life2020 Do you expect the domestic regrading to be lower or higher?

@RaymondChristopherTanto By some miracle, it's higher.

(For contest, one person lost 6 points upon regrading and another person lost 2 last year.)

@Math4Life2020 Wow nice, congrats!

@Math4Life2020 How did they lose 6 points?

Admits orz