This market resolves Yes to each country that legalizes the use of one or more psychedelic substances between market creation and market close, including cases in which such use is contingent on prescription by a licensed medical professional.
At the time of market creation, studies on the efficacy of psychedelic substances in mental health treatments are being conducted by various institutes globally. Several countries have shown interest in exploring the therapeutic potential of psychedelics, with promising results emerging in the treatment of addiction, schizophrenia, depression, and other disorders.
Some of the countries listed as options already allow the use of some psychedelics in some or all settings.
For example, Australia has legalized the prescription of MDMA and psylocibin effective Jul 1, 2023. In Germany, ibogaine is legal while other psychedelics remain illegal. Brazil has legalized ayahuasca while psilocybin has never been illegal in the country. These countries resolve Yes if psychedelic substances that were illegal as of market creation become legal before market close.
For any country to resolve Yes a change in law at a national level is required. Legalization at the state or provincial level within federal countries, such as the United States, would not be sufficient to resolve a 'Yes' for that country.
1,000Just decriminalizing is not enough to resolve YES, right? Because if it is then Portugal is already there (since 2000).
@BrunoParga My understanding is that possession of drugs in Portugal is not treated as a criminal offence but is still punishable by law, therefore not legal. Decriminilization is not sufficient for a Yes resolution.
Also note that if Portugal had already legalized some psychedelics, this market would care about psychedelics being legalized that were not legal as of market creation.
Must a country legalize "all" psychedelics or will any one qualify it for a YES? Is there a master list of psychedelics you'd want to use to determine which would qualify?
@Stralor One psychedelic substance is enough to resolve to yes. I do not have a list as of right now, I'll try to find a good source for one.
When I created the market, I assumed it would be fine to not have a list, surely there'll be some reliable source for what is and is not classified as a psychedelic substance. I admit that may have been bad. Don't trade yet if you're worried this might influence resolution.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?