I'm a 30 year old male who came very close to starting female hormones this year but decided not to do so. Each option will resolve on its respective date to 'yes' if I wish, with the benefit of hindsight, that I had taken hormones in 2025. If on that date I don't regret my 2025 decision, the option will resolve 'no'. Reasons I was considering transitioning: It would suit my feminine personality and style I wanted to be hot, male body does not appeal to me My preferred physical intimacy is to be touched/stimulated and HRT could maximize that sensitivity I enjoy receiving attention, have a feminine-typical type of ADHD In terms of relationships I am a boyfailure HRT might make me more open to dating men, that would make dating a lot easier for me (I'm currently heteroflexible) I'm likely going to be a single parent, it feels more fitting to be a single mom than a single dad Reasons I decided not to transition: Complicates my parenting plans (I would have to freeze lots of sperm for IVF, fairly expensive) I'm worried that being a trans role model as a parent will increase the risk of my children developing gender dysphoria and damaging their own fertility Trans women experience lower income after transitioning I'm still hoping for a strong relationship with a cis woman and think that will be easier if I'm a boy Afraid of becoming an old woman, feel more comfortable becoming an old man I am comfortable wearing boy clothes and using boy pronouns Worried about psychological risks: becoming maladapted to my current career and lifestyle, becoming unhealthily obsessed with my body appearance, becoming too hedonistic I don't want to complicate relationships with my parents and church community - I could make it work, but it would be a hassle If I change my mind and start taking hormones in 2025 then all options resolve N/A. Edit to add: I will not bet in this market.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 9/1/2045, followed by 9/1/2035 and 9/1/2030 are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of May 1, 2026).

When will I regret not changing my gender

MANIFOLD

When will I regret not changing my gender

Ṁ325Ṁ1.4k

2045

49%

9/1/2045

48%

9/1/2035

39%

9/1/2030

30%

9/1/2028

9/1/2026

I'm a 30 year old male who came very close to starting female hormones this year but decided not to do so. Each option will resolve on its respective date to 'yes' if I wish, with the benefit of hindsight, that I had taken hormones in 2025. If on that date I don't regret my 2025 decision, the option will resolve 'no'.

Reasons I was considering transitioning:

It would suit my feminine personality and style
I wanted to be hot, male body does not appeal to me
My preferred physical intimacy is to be touched/stimulated and HRT could maximize that sensitivity
I enjoy receiving attention, have a feminine-typical type of ADHD
In terms of relationships I am a boyfailure
HRT might make me more open to dating men, that would make dating a lot easier for me (I'm currently heteroflexible)
I'm likely going to be a single parent, it feels more fitting to be a single mom than a single dad

Reasons I decided not to transition:

Complicates my parenting plans (I would have to freeze lots of sperm for IVF, fairly expensive)
I'm worried that being a trans role model as a parent will increase the risk of my children developing gender dysphoria and damaging their own fertility
Trans women experience lower income after transitioning
I'm still hoping for a strong relationship with a cis woman and think that will be easier if I'm a boy
Afraid of becoming an old woman, feel more comfortable becoming an old man
I am comfortable wearing boy clothes and using boy pronouns
Worried about psychological risks: becoming maladapted to my current career and lifestyle, becoming unhealthily obsessed with my body appearance, becoming too hedonistic
I don't want to complicate relationships with my parents and church community - I could make it work, but it would be a hassle

If I change my mind and start taking hormones in 2025 then all options resolve N/A.

Edit to add: I will not bet in this market.

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LGBTQIA+

transgender

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IUI is a cheaper alternative to IVF, though it requires more frozen sperm
Evidence points to fertility coming back in basically all cases after cessation of hrt after 6 months to a year ot so, especially if you weren't on it for long (though this isn't completely guaranteed)

HRT may make you less open to dating men as well (It is not at all unheard of for a transgender person to experience a change in their sexual orientation with transition. This is almost always the result of the removal of self-imposed mental barriers, but hormone therapy often plays a role in that removal. In most cases this simply involves an expansion of ones attraction, from monosexual to bi/pansexual, but some people also discover that their attraction was largely rooted in self-interest and that their true attraction is reversed. - https://genderdysphoria.fyi/en/second-puberty-fem)

Also it might do things like making you more sociable/happy among other benefits (which may in turn make it easier to get a partner) but obviously this depends on the person. [This may not actually be a factor of hormone therapy, however, and may simply be a result of no longer having to suppress large portions of their personality. - above page]

which of your reasons are most important to you?

@vi imo, having to pay for sperm freezing etc. is miniscule compared to the difference between the lives you will be living. if not for breast growth id recommend trying hormones out for a few months

@vi Thank you for chiming in. I realize I should have elaborated more about this in the original post... it's not just that I want to have kids, but I want to have many kids, and I am not sure if I will ever find a willing and able spouse. So, I need to be prepared for international surrogacy (US domestic surrogacy is extra expensive and apparently it kind of sucks). Which makes the sperm freezing process a lot more complicated and expensive. Am I going to freeze domestically or in a foreign country? Which foreign country? That would require an expensive vacation. One international surrogate agency advised me to ensure that my legal gender at the time of sperm freezing matched my legal gender at the time of the birth of the surrogate child or else I legally wouldn't be able to pick up the child! So many legal grey areas and unknowns with this kind of thing.

I have seen opinions that the risk of permanent fertility destruction is overblown. That may well be the case. But is there strong evidence about it. For me, having kids is the most important thing, so I wouldn't want to take any chances.

one of the sadder markets i have seen in a while
@Martlet if you need someone to talk to feel free to @ me

@Sinclair I appreciate it! Please rest assured... I am living a happy life! And always wishing the best for all the wonderful trans people!

Fuck if I know. Good luck though!

bought Ṁ10 YES

Don't be discouraged by the far future numbers. I think they're rather path-dependent. E.g. if your parenting plans don't succeed, you're likelier to have a "what could have been" kind of regret. Life is uncertain.

I just found this comment on Reddit saying that single fathers do better than single mothers. I like this perspective. When I imagine myself as a single mother I imagine myself as sensitive and vulnerable but when I imagine myself as a single father I imagine myself as an effective (but gender nonconforming) patriarch.