MANIFOLD
If Fordow is destroyed, how will it be done?
21
Ṁ175Ṁ1.2k
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
YES
GBU-57 MOP
Resolved
NO
GBU-28 or GBU-72
Resolved
NO
Modified, improvised, or previously-secret design of nonnuclear bomb
Resolved
NO
Cargo aircraft used as bomber
Resolved
NO
Ballistic missile with nonnuclear warhead
Resolved
NO
Nuclear weapon
Resolved
NO
Humans inside the facility

This will resolve upon Fordow nuclear site receiving extensive interior damage from an intentional non-Iranian operation. Damage or destruction of the entrances/exits and secondary surface buildings will not count. You can propose additional answers for me to add. The definitions of the answers may be debatable so I will not bet in this market.

  • Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the destruction event described has not occurred by the market's close date, the market will resolve to N/A.

  • Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If an attack occurs, that answer will be considered correct, but the market will remain open for other potential attacks with different methods. This may result in multiple answers being resolved as correct.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ40
2Ṁ31
3Ṁ14
4Ṁ12
5Ṁ7
Sort by:

Still no views inside the facility for proof but... statements from all governments and satellite imagery suggest major damage, and there has been no counter evidence after two months. So I have resolved yes for the MOP strike.

Awaiting detailed damage assessment before resolution. And to clarify, I will resolve options ‘yes’ once confirmed but leave the other options open (in case Fordow is attacked twice with different means). I hope this is what people expected when they placed their bets, I apologize for not clarifying it earlier.

if there is no destruction before 2026, does this N/A?

@zsig yes

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy