A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025

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resolved Jan 1

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Background information: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/impeachment-and-removal-judges-explainer

Applies to any federal judge, including district, appeal, or supreme. Resolves YES on vote to impeach in the house, not conviction. Resolves NO at end of 2025.

Market context

US Politics

US Democracy

US Judiciary

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Let's get specific:

https://manifold.markets/JeffBerman/impeach-the-judge-who-blocked-doge

Based on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_judges, the average rate seems to be about 0.3 impeachments per year. Assuming a Poisson distribution would put the odds at about 86%. Intuitively, that seems unreasonable.