Who will Donald Trump pardon in his first 100 days?
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Plus
42
Ṁ6608
2025
89%
Any SPECIFIC Jan. 6th rioter (not en masse)
73%
Jan. 6th rioters en masse
36%
Ross Ulbricht
21%
Elon Musk
19%
Matt Gaetz
18%
Any directly-related family member
14%
Any war criminal
12%
No one
10%
Donald Trump
9%
MTG
4%
Michael Avenatti
1.9%
Anyone who has already received a pardon

Who will trump pardon in the first 100 days of his presidency? Resolves based on https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients. A commutation gets 50%.

In the event that a pardon is issued for an individual not listed who is part of a group that is listed, that will resolve YES unless otherwise specified, as they've been pardoned.

All members of a group must be pardoned for a group to resolve YES. If it's obviously that group, but with a conditional tacked on (e.g., "all Jan. 6th rioters with low-level drug offenses"), it resolves to 50%, just like a commutation (as would a conditional tacked onto a commutation).

In the event that a pardon is blocked, overturned, overruled, nullified, or otherwise stopped from taking effect for any reason, it'll have no effect on the resolution of this question - it'll still resolve YES.

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bought Ṁ10 NO

Aren't the two rioters options meant to be mutually exclusive? How are they both at 70%?

@ProjectVictory Not necessarily - he could pardon a group of them (such as "any january 6th protestor who didn't take a plea deal") and then pick off specific ones as well (such as a posthumous pardon for Ashli Babbitt)

opened a Ṁ5 YES at 5% order

@Bayesian that would be hilarious actually

@ProjectVictory it's at 16% on polymarket. wild

Is he even allowed to pardon himself?

@quadruple We don't actually know! That'll be a question for the Supreme Court if he tries it - but if he tries it, even if it fails, I'm resolving it YES

reposted

Well, it looks like Trump is going to be president again. What will he do in his first hundred days?

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