Was Brian Thompson (CEO of UnitedHealthcare) murdered in an act of revenge?
Basic
27
Ṁ1748
2025
98.5%
chance

Resolves YES if reporting comes out that Brian Thompson, ceo of UnitedHealthcare (UHC), was murdered as an act of revenge. Examples of this could be a disgruntled employee, someone whose loved one was denied care, someone acting on behalf of anyone previously denied care, extramarital affair, etc. If the murder was a hit, it will resolve based on the person who took out the hit and not the hitman. Examples of things that would resolve NO would be an ideological killing, a botched robbery, etc.

Resolves N/A if the motive is not known (or highly suspected) after a year.

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I think this question is unfortunately ambiguous.

My bet is “yes, in that it was an act of revenge against the American health insurance system, personified by Thompson.” But one could easily make the argument that revenge against the system or United Health Care is different than revenge against Thompson personally.

@EricJacobsen I think I'm counting "revenge against UHC or the American healthcare system, as personified by Thompson" as a YES, because otherwise it's gonna be messy.

reposted

https://abcnews.go.com/US/man-shot-chest-midtown-manhattan-masked-gunman-large/story?id=116446382

The words "deny," "defend" and "depose" were discovered by detectives on the shell casings found at the scene where Brian Thompson, the CEO of major insurance group UnitedHealthcare, was gunned down, police sources told ABC News late Wednesday evening.

There's suspicions that this is a reference to three tactics used by health insurance companies to avoid payouts, commonly listed as "Delay, Deny, and Defend."

If root cause of the killing is an extramarital affair, is that resolved as Yes or No?

@AdamBraff I'm gonna go with YES, because that feels sufficiently revenge-y to me

@Marnix if his murderer was a hitman I'm also going with YES so long as the person who hired him did so in an act of revenge

@Marnix not to be macabre but there are affair-related scenarios that might involve money as opposed to revenge per se.

@AdamBraff hmm... might need to be played by ear, tbh. I'll refrain from betting on this market.

@Marnix I think the natural division in people's minds is (a) insured or family of same, (b) (ex)employee, (c) something to do with CEO's personal life, (d) other. The original framing of "revenge" vs other seems to slice somewhere in the middle of (d). But who am I to talk, I didn't make the market!

@AdamBraff Yeah, I was originally intending the split to fall somewhere after A and B rather than C, but it seems a little late to change it now, and I'm not sure what wording would fix it!

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