https://www.blackenterprise.com/partial-government-shutdown-begins/ claims furloughs are in effect.

Government Grinds To A Halt After Funding Deal Stalls In House, Triggering Partial U.S. Shutdown

The most recent government shutdown reflects tensions over unresolved disputes concerning immigration enforcement and federal spending.

@Marnix RESOLVE DA CONTRACT BIG BOIIIII

the nice thing about prediction markets is the clarity they give you in today's uncertain world

@draaglom this one has been an absolute rollercoaster lol

@draaglom this is what 250M of liquidity will do to a mf

time to resolve it to a yes gents

@traders The shutdown has begun and seems extremely likely to result in a furlough - but that furlough seems unlikely to start until Monday. The exact wording of this market says it will resolve YES if:

there is a government shutdown with furlough, full or partial, due to Congress failing to pass a continuing resolution or some other form of spending package in January 2026.

The wording here only cares about the failure to pass a spending package in January, and there being a subsequent furlough. If the furlough happens in February, this resolves YES. I'm going to extend the market time a few days because of this. (This scenario was the only feasible one, since the spending lapse was slated for today).

@Marnix

but that furlough seems unlikely to start until Monday

Why do you say this? It seems that not everyone who works on the weekend is excepted

@satchlj I saw reporting saying OPB was unlikely to actually issue furlough notices until Monday. From the CBS report you posted earlier:

@Marnix interesting

What do you think happens to weekend workers who are not excepted then? If OMB it's supposed to coordinate shutdown but won't do that until Monday do agencies continue as normal, just without funding? That seems hard to believe

@Marnix for what it’s worth, I’ve definitely been betting under the impression that the furlough itself needed to be in January.

NATCA describes the "January 31, 2026 Government shutdown furlough", possibly implying some FAA workers have been furloughed.

https://www.natca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/January-31-2026-Shutdown-MOU-MD.pdf

@Marnix does this count?

relevant reporting:

https://apnews.com/article/government-shutdown-homeland-security-pentagon-transportation-2dd3464f56295ff79f136c1c5c24a532

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-deadline-senate-funding-deal/

https://wtop.com/liveblog-today-on-the-hill/2026/01/partial-government-shutdown-expected-to-be-short/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/01/31/government-shutdown-immigration-dhs/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/31/us-government-shutdown-dhs-funding

the IRS will shutter just days into tax season

Funding will lapse, at least temporarily, for the Pentagon and agencies such as the departments of Homeland Security and Transportation.

As of this morning I cannot find reporting that states, in so many words, that a worker has already been furloughed. However, it is Saturday morning. It seems quite certain that somebody will be furloughed.

Damn it. I should have read the description before pulling the trigger.

Rapidly becoming official https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/M-26-06-Status-of-Agency-Operations.pdf

Hey @Marnix how does this resolve if agencies tell employees to plan on working as normal but OPM still releases a "technical shutdown" notice?

@bens also would only DHS employees being furloughed count as a YES resolution? Is that partial enough?

@bens Any agency being furloughed, even if they only do a partial furlough, would count for a YES resolution.

DHS being told to continue working as usual feels like a weird edge case, and I forget that every "with furlough" market has these. I guess it'd come down to whether or not they also furlough anybody? @traders, what do we think?

@Marnix what source will you be looking at for whether workers are furloughed? consensus of mainstream reporting? government source?

@Marnix I mean if they are told to continue working it doesn’t feel like there has been a shutdown.

@Marnix "Continue working" while furloughed would still count as furloughed in my book. Because some managers don't agree with congress does not mean that congress didn't act (except for the well known exceptions like air traffic controllers for whom it's not a management decision but a statutory requirement).

And there is a significant chance of just such managerial disagreement. Government workers have a strong sense of mission. Many will willingly (and sometimes secretly) work without pay for a while to keep (whatever vital service they provide) going. Add in a politically sensitive area like immigration, I can certainly see many leaders saying, "Just keep working. We're doing this for our country. We'll figure out the paychecks once the dust settles."

@EricMoyer that’s not what furloughed means. If you wanted to bet on a technical shutdown, that’s what the OPM market from Brad is about.

@bens Consensus of mainstream reporting seems most viable but I'd accept a government source as well i suppose