Which country will be the first new EU member?
Which country will be the first new EU member?
25
1.6kṀ27272035
1.1%
Turkey
78%
Montenegro
40%
North Macedonia
29%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
12%
Serbia
11%
Albania
7%
Georgia
7%
Moldova
5%
Ukraine
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
What if multiple countries enter on the same date?
And will this actually expire at the end of 2024?
@aok I think both will resolve yes if added in the same date.
@MarcoPolo please let us know what you mean:
Which country will be added first in 2024? If none, all resolve No at the end of 2024.
Or just the first to be added and you extend the market to 2050 for example.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is the next country to leave European Union:?
Which country will be the next to join the European Union?
No new countries join the European Union (EU) in 2025
98% chance
Next country to join the European Union:
Which of these countries will be the first to become an OECD member?
Who will be the next country to join NATO?
Will the next country to join the European Union be Ukraine?
6% chance
Which of these countries will join the EU before 2030?
Which EU country will disqualify a major presidential candidate or a major political party next?
Will any new countries join the EU before 2030?
67% chance