The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin. Each threshold resolves YES if the book is officially published and available for purchase in any format (print, digital, or audio) through at least one major retailer (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or equivalent) before the listed date. If the novel is split into multiple volumes, the first volume's publication date counts. A title change does not affect resolution as long as it is marketed as the sixth ASOIAF novel. Each threshold resolves NO if George R. R. Martin dies before the book's official publication date, even if a completed manuscript exists. Posthumous publication does not count.
1,000Some arbitrage opportunities (although be careful with the resolution criteria, there are minor differences):
https://manifold.markets/Lion/will-winds-of-winter-a-song-of-ice
https://manifold.markets/DanielPugh/when-will-the-next-game-of-thrones
https://manifold.markets/MarnixV/when-will-the-winds-of-winter-be-re