Anyone care to summarize the gradual increasing trend on this market from 45% to 70% over the last half year? Martin's blog has been more barren than ever, still just posting about all his friends who die, TV series he is tangentially involved in, and rarely, if ever, mentioning this book.

@Eliza
a) 45% was probably just wrong in the first place
b) I've heard that one of the recent blog posts hints that WoW will be ready soon.

@MichaelWheatley He used to mention his book progress around once a month. I think the last time he specifically said he was working on this book was December 2023, and it has only had a couple mentions since then.

He seems to have started traveling a little bit less, but he still does these trips that seem to put him off from working for 2-3 weeks for a trip of less than a week.

Half his blog posts are about his friends dying and he does not seem like a very happy person much of the time.

The other half of his posts in recent years have been post after post after post about TV things and seem like a mix between genuine excitement and getting the word out about these shows.

Roughly a decade ago, his posts would be frequent, with many posts per month, and often quite long. The more recent ones are infrequent and short.

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I'm still a Yes holder and I also thought 45% was low at the time (and bought Yes then). But if this gets much over 75% I'll probably be reconsidering my position.

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He claimed to have locked himself up in a "mountain holdfast" during the first year+ of Covid and somehow did not manage to finish writing a book? Let's get the doubters out here to point out his age (75 years) and how he's in the exact same phase of life as all his friends who have passed away within the last few years.

@Eliza

> Roughly a decade ago, his posts would be frequent, with many posts per month, and often quite long. The more recent ones are infrequent and short.

Highly bullish. Sounds like he's finally started actually writing the book

> He used to mention his book progress around once a month. I think the last time he specifically said he was working on this book was December 2023, and it has only had a couple mentions since then.

From what I recall of the Dance of Dragons announcement, it was suddenly sprung on us with no warning. In general he doesn't like giving progress updates and if it was nearing I would expect him to make it a surprise not focus millions of peoples' attentions on his status updates as they move from "T minus ten thousand words," "T minus eight thousand words,".... etc.

>I'm still a Yes holder and I also thought 45% was low at the time (and bought Yes then). But if this gets much over 75% I'll probably be reconsidering my position.

It's a shame, if you were just slightly worse calibrated we could do a side bet.

Let's just get it on the record -- if the name of the book is different, but it is "The book someone in 2023 would have referred to", is it a Yes situation?

What if he splits it into two books again 😂

@Joshua That's exactly why I think Lion can help prevent disaster in the future by clarifying now. I see this is trading different from some other very similar questions.

@Eliza @Joshua Let's begin with a straightforward criterion: The entire book must be published during George R.R. Martin's lifetime. This means that if it's released in multiple parts, Martin would need to be alive at the time of the final book's publication.

This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.

Thanks for your questions, I will add these to the description.

@Lion Thanks! That matches exactly with what I thought you would say, but it is very good to have it made official.

https://manifold.markets/hyperion/will-the-sixth-novel-in-the-a-song

Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?

62% chance. This market resolves to "YES" if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series of fantasy novels is released before the death of the author, George R. R. Martin. Mar 20, 12:36am: Trading ends on 20th September 2049 - GRRMs 100th birthday.

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