Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Basic

𝕊8181

resolved Nov 8

Resolved

YES

ALL

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Michigan the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.

If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Michigan, or NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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@mods resolves YES

@polymathematic > this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

@jacksonpolack sorry, thought i had seen other sweeps markets where michigan was already resolving yes. i do see the 48 hour thing in the description now.

@ManifoldPolitics AP called it https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-michigan-president-race-call-winner-explain-7252cb72b9b0b75f1cb0716917b3f3aa

bought Ṁ30 NO

There is a pretty big arb opportunity (12% atm): https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-7e7362326c95

bought Ṁ500 NO

@FH7979e Thanks, made 3k ❤

I drove through Michigan (the long way) last week and I'm sorry to report that Trump is definitely winning the state. The signage advantage is massive, especially if you interpret the "pray for our country" signs as right-coded. Also, Kamala made the mistake of using a lot of yellow, the most hated color, on her billboards.

bought Ṁ690 NO from 40% to 38%

@AlQuinn you can drive through missaukee all you want. now go to washtenaw

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 50% order

@jacksonpolack @Joshua @chrisjbillington @Bayesian

jim order up

bought Ṁ750 NO

@jim

bought Ṁ100 YES

Michigan Muslims support Trump, not warmonger Cheney and her preferred candidate Kamala.

bought Ṁ50 NO from 49% to 48%

bought Ṁ250 YES from 50% to 52%

boughtṀ15YES

@AlexanderMiller Is it correct to assume that you are arbing with polymarket? Or do you genuinely think that Trump has equal odds to win the bluest swing state? Just asking out of curiosity.

bought 𝕊15.00 NO

@bagelfan thanks for making me notice that Kalshi is 8 points lower on Trump than Polymarket is here, wtf

Our predictions need to account for the increased turnout that's sure to come as a result of this sticker. So much for the "paradox of voting" when you can encourage voters to go to the polls for a sticker like this.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@PlasmaBallin fuck I might actually vote if I could get that sticker

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