Tracks the Democratic percentage in VoteHub’s published time-weighted 2026 generic-ballot polling average. This is the percentage choosing Democratic—not the Democratic-minus-Republican margin, a two-party-normalized share, a forecast, or the election result.
Manifold checks VoteHub every 5 minutes and updates the oracle whenever VoteHub’s value changes. Historical chart points come from VoteHub’s published daily series.
If no sufficiently fresh and valid value can be published for 30 hours, trading pauses.
After November 3, 2026, this market will be manually settled at the latest accepted VoteHub Democratic-share value. It does not settle based on the election result.
Source: https://votehub.com/polls/?poll=generic_ballot_2026
Licensed under CC BY 4.0.
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@Web3ICP because of undecideds, it would be bascailly free money to ‘long’
Currently the average is about 47-41. Third parties are not going to get 12%
@Jack1 I hope Dems do well. I expect they will. But, I don’t know how many rabbits can be pulled out of a hat judicially and electorally. We’ll see.