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MANIFOLD
OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?
99
Ṁ600Ṁ23k
Dec 31
12%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that OpenAI discovered the first valid proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before January 1st 2027. Only proofs made public before 2027 are considered, and the public release date determines which proof is deemed the “first.” If at least one candidate proof from OpenAI is made public before the end date but its validity remains uncertain, the end date can be extended until the proof’s validity is resolved. Both proofs that demonstrate the hypothesis or demonstrate that it's undecidable are acceptable in the context of this question. Proofs that the hypothesis is false are also acceptable.

If another entity makes a proof public first and that proof is considered valid, this question automatically resolves as NO. Similarly, if no publicly known OpenAI proof emerges before January 1st 2027, the question resolves as NO.

Examples of what qualifies as a "proof from OpenAI” include, but are not limited to:

  • Papers published to arXiv (or other preprint servers) with OpenAI researchers listed as authors.

  • Peer-reviewed journal or conference publications with (strongly) OpenAI-affiliated authors.

  • White papers or technical reports released on official OpenAI channels (e.g., blogs, GitHub, or websites).

  • Work using proprietary OpenAI models (not publicly available), where the researchers have privileged access and rely on OpenAI’s own compute resources or those provided through partnerships (e.g., Microsoft). Proofs discovered by running on third-party servers outside such partnerships (e.g., a university cluster) do not qualify under this condition.

A public release of any document or presentation that claims to prove the Riemann Hypothesis—produced (or co-produced) by OpenAI researchers and using OpenAI resources—will be sufficient to trigger a YES resolution if no other valid proof has been released prior to it. If the validity of an OpenAI proof remains uncertain by January 1st 2027, the resolution date may be postponed until its validity is established.

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filled aṀ1,000YES at 12% order

@0xseraphim 12% is quite extremely low, in this highly uncertain world

@BionicD0LPH1N you want to trade more at 14%?

@ZacharyKleinfa41 shh shh, people keep buying it down and I'm getting a great deal below 10%

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 10% order

@ZacharyKleinfa41 Feel free to take my limit at 10% if you want. My odds on this resolving YES is not that much higher than 14%, and I have low balance right now due to other bets (e.g. locked in this market), so I'm not opposed to taking a limit you'd put at 14%, but probably wouldn't right now.

opened a Ṁ2,000 NO at 14% order

@BionicD0LPH1N I don't think I'll do anymore at 10% at this point but I have some more at 14%

@0xseraphim If my portfolio was bigger I would be more at worse prices, but I don't think that I can justify putting more than 60% into one market, so now I gotta charge a premium :/

definitely going to race harder for the riemann now

@pietrokc feed me more mana

🙏 🙏 🙏

bought Ṁ24 NO

@0xseraphim I don't log on here every day lol. Happy to continue betting no as none of the things you posted below, and not even the Navier-Stokes result, are much evidence towards them solving Riemann by EoY

@pietrokc tbh you have a good shot of winning!

@0xseraphim You would do well to follow some actual mathematicians instead of just AI companies. This OpenAI result is just a minor improvement on the result of Stadlmann. Stadlmann clearly states her result is not optimal in the paper.

@pietrokc You would do well to remember that this market is about whether OpenAI publishes the first valid proof of Riemann before 2027, not whether this particular result (linked above) is a major breakthrough

@0xseraphim Brother you're the one who posted the pdf

@pietrokc

Brother you should learn to read

@0xseraphim I guess I misunderstood your purpose in posting that. Sorry!