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MANIFOLD
Will Aleph Alpha fold by 2028
1
Ṁ120Ṁ10
2028
45%
chance

If Aleph Alpha shuts down as an organisation, goes bankrupt, gets sold for a price (rumoured or confirmed) that is much lower (half or less) than the most recent valuation, then this will resolve “Yes”. Basically the intent of the question is whether the company/org “failed” at finding a sustainable business model and sustained growth consistent with a $1B+ outcome for investors and founders.

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might need na on this one @mods it isnt clear to me if this should be yes or no, also there is only one trader

the intent of the question is whether the company/org “failed” at finding a sustainable business model and sustained growth consistent with a $1B+ outcome for investors and founders.

aleph alpha was merged/acquired by Cohere - the new entity is worth ~$20B with cohere executives controlling the new entity. cohere shareholders own 90% and aleph shareholders own 10%


arg for YES - they did shut down as an org, had suffered layoffs and investors leaving, revenue growth had stalled prior to merger. also cohere controls the new entity and the aleph brand is gone, seems like they were taken over by a competitor due to being unable to maintain a sustainable business model

arg for NO - technically this could be seen as >1B outcome for investors? (10% of $20B) and it was not for 'half or less' of their valuation at the time, as far as i can tell

wyt?