MANIFOLD
By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?
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resolved Feb 6
Resolved
YES

Any proof that this is possible counts.

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sorry for slow resolution, stopped spending much time on here

bought Ṁ500 YES

@Mag, Can this resolve yes?

Phi-3 / Phi-3-mini (≈3.8 B parameters): Benchmarks show Phi-3-mini scores close to GPT-3.5 on academic tasks (e.g., MMLU, HellaSwag) and is designed specifically for phone deployment.

Apple’s own on device models reach this threshold (benchmarking at qwen2.5, which seems comparable to gpt4o on lmarena)

https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/introducing-apple-foundation-models

Underpriced:Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025

Mistral Small seems similar in performance to GPT 3.5: https://mistral.ai/news/la-plateforme/

Should be a matter of days until someone runs it on their iPhone

It runs on a MacBook, fairly trivial to get ~3x gain in tflops and 3-10x gain in model performance over this window

Federated learning

predictedYES

As evidence in favour:

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