By 2025, we will have made an artificial system that is judged with high likelihood (>80%) to have some sort of conscious experience
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Ṁ3101Dec 31
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Should be fairly easy to tell if/when this happens, or at least if there is serious debate around whether it has happened.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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If this were for 2030, I'd guess about 40% chance. For 2035, about 90% chance. For end of 2024? That's mighty soon. I think I'm at about 2% chance.... My probability goes up significantly in 2025-2026.
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