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MANIFOLD
Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?
26
Ṁ500Ṁ1.4k
2029
77%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if at least one race in the Abbott World Marathon Majors series (Tokyo, Boston, London, Berlin, Chicago, New York City, Sydney) is won in a time under 2 hours (sub-2:00:00) during each individual calendar year from 2026 through 2029. So, at least once in 2026 (done: London as of market creation) and 2027 and 2028 and 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to "NO".

Resolution will be based on the official race results published on the respective websites of each marathon major.

Related:

/MachiNi/sub-158-marathon-before-la-olympics

/MachiNi/sub-159-marathon-before-la-olympics

/MachiNi/sub2-world-marathon-majors-20262029

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Sad that super shoes continue to ruin the sport. These days when you see a fast time you don’t marvel at the athlete so much as ask what they were wearing.

World Athletics should find some way to shut down improvements in shoe technology.

@JaundicedBaboon I don’t disagree. It makes it pointless to compare current times with those of even six years ago.

@MachiNi at this point we have literally no objective way to judge what the true best marathon performance ever is. We’ll probably be debating it forever

@JaundicedBaboon It’s a bit like when riders smash TDF records from the EPO era. Bikes, nutrition and training are so different that raw performances themselves are not worth comparing (neither pure time nor power). But you can still compare athletes and assess their performances in context and over time. Like, Pogačar is obviously one of the greatest cyclists of all time. And so is Sawe now one of the greatest marathoners of all time. Not because they beat records per se but because of how they win, how often, against whom, etc.

Good market. I was actually coming on here to ask you if you were interested in making one asking if each edition of each upcoming major would have a finish under 2 hours, that feels like a good multi-select market. I like the idea of putting a price range on all of them from Berlin to Boston etc. so viewers could check in and see which ones they think are likely to get a sub 2 hour finish over the next 1-2-3 years.

@Eliza I like that.

@traders you can bet on individual options in the market linked above this comment

bought Ṁ136 YES

Can this resolve, someone broke 2 in London?

@AAR 1. The market was created after Sawe’s finish. 2. The question is whether 2 hours will be broken every year at least once until December 31, 2029. This can’t resolve until at least one major has been won under 2 in 2029.

reposted

I suspect the super shoes are causing a massive recalibration of expectations. Sub-2 will become ‘normal’ before too long. Not a great development IMO but here we are.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@MachiNi You're probably right but I am betting that at least one year there'll be a slump in the field or something. Sub 2 is still crazy to me and I think it'll stay a little crazy for a while.

@kmajc totally possible. I’m also wondering if world athletics might start cracking down on shoe technology—as swimming did with the suits. The fact that a guy no one expected to see there broke 2 on his first marathon is ridiculous.

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