The usual rules for resolution apply: must be hurricane strength at time of landfall, NHC advisory, UTC time. Any state or territory of the United States of America.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ839 | |
| 2 | Ṁ747 | |
| 3 | Ṁ154 | |
| 4 | Ṁ144 | |
| 5 | Ṁ119 |
Market up for next month:
https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-t-RlsC0QzchL?r=TWFjaGlOaQ
This looks like its going to be a nightmare market to predict.
Since Sunday night/Monday morning it has been sensitive to timing (many landfall points were at the end of the month or very near Oct 1), windshield wiper predictions so far out with the recurving track following nearly parallel to the coast, and the intensity of points landing near the coast had plenty of variability, and all of these together were causing large swings.
Now I'm seeing a bifurcation in the tracks in 18Z google (one cluster with a faster speed resulting in a little less than half of 94L tracks approaching the Carolinas, and the other half slowing down near the Bahamas then following after Humberto).