Will a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?
5
Ṁ300Ṁ150Dec 31
28%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Only Pacific (including all of Hawaï but excluding US territories). Only storms with hurricane force winds at time of landfall according to NHC advisories. Only during official season (June 1 - November 30).
Update 2026-09-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purpose of resolving this market, Hawaii is defined with Ni'ihau as its westernmost boundary (excluding the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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