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MANIFOLD
Will a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?
5
Ṁ300Ṁ150
Dec 31
28%
chance

Only Pacific (including all of Hawaï but excluding US territories). Only storms with hurricane force winds at time of landfall according to NHC advisories. Only during official season (June 1 - November 30).

  • Update 2026-09-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purpose of resolving this market, Hawaii is defined with Ni'ihau as its westernmost boundary (excluding the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands).

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Should define Hawaii as the furthest west is Ni'ihau or something along those lines, like Kalshi. The state's territory actually stretches out pretty far iirc.

@ScottSupak sounds good to me