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MANIFOLD
Trump Xi Summit Prop Bets
23
Ṁ1.2kṀ1.2k
May 31
94%
Trump and Xi shake hands
81%
Trump mentions Iran
67%
A new deal is struck on tariffs
57%
Trump says or implies the US cannot let China win the AI race
52%
Rubio is present on the trip
52%
Melania Trump is present on the trip
52%
Trump will wear a red tie at least once
44%
Trump mentions COVID
43%
Trump mentions Taiwan
43%
Trump makes major gaffe
37%
Trump mentions Biden
26%
Trump accuses China of cyber warfare
23%
Trump mentions OpenAI
22%
Xi speaks English in front of cameras
18%
Trump mentions Anthropic
18%
Trump says or implies the US cannot let China win the space race
18%
Trump mentions Obama or Obamacare
15%
No summit takes place before EOY

This is about the upcoming meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in China in May 2026. If the meeting is postponed to some future time by the end of 2026, the options will apply to that meeting. If the meeting does not happen by the end of the year, all the relevant options resolve accordingly (NO or YES depending on the case). All options pertain to a single visit over the course of one or several consecutive days not to separate visits during 2026. They therefore apply exclusively to the first such summit to take place in 2026.

All events must be reliably reported by mainstream outlets or take place before cameras. I will adjudicate the answers I added myself.

Feel free to add options. I reserve the right to resolve unclear or absurd answers N/A without prior notice.

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