Iran-Israel war before 2028?
Iran-Israel war before 2028?
13
100Ṁ5442027
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Details:
The conflict must escalate into an all-out war, not merely limited military actions or isolated bombing rounds.
The situation should be recognized by the media, with consistent references to it as a war.
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My understanding is that neither side has the ability to wage an all-out war against an opponent so far away from their home country. So a full ground invasion is not possible.
I would love to hear how it would happen from YES holders.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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