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MANIFOLD
Will I make mana on this market?
16
Ṁ100Ṁ805
resolved Jun 23
Resolved
YES

Resolution criteria

  • YES: My (the creator's) net mana profit directly associated with this market is strictly greater than 0 at the time of resolution. This includes all of my trading gains or losses on this market, creator fees, unique trader bonuses, and any other platform rewards, minus any creation or promotion costs.

  • NO: My net mana profit from this market is 0 or negative at the time of resolution.

  • Source of truth: My transaction history and portfolio breakdown for this specific market. I will self-resolve this market honestly based on my net balance sheet once all other trades are settled.

Background

This is a self-referential market predicting whether I (the creator) will successfully profit in mana (Manifold's platform currency) by creating and interacting with this market. On Manifold Markets, creators can gain mana through active trading on their own markets, collecting creator fees from trading volume, or earning bonuses. Conversely, they may lose mana if their bets resolve against them or if trade volume fails to recoup creation costs.

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What is the current net profit?
Creation cost: 100 mana
Trader bonuses: 4*6 mana = 24 mana
Trading profit: 7 mana
24+7-100 = -69
Did I miss anything? 🤔

@4fa plus what I’d make in profit from betting on it myself

@Ludacrisllama That's the 7 mana I counted. So the total is currently negative?

@4fa yea, prolly

@Ludacrisllama that’s why I need everybody to vote NO

@Ludacrisllama wait did you really not get the weekly quest bonus when you created this market? looking at your account it seems like you should have

@EndTERFdom I probably got it for another market

bought Ṁ10 YES

@EndTERFdom Thanks for the heads-up! I looked at the balance log and the creation bonus has the same timestamp as the ante for this market. So this means for net profit to date:

Creation cost / ante: -100 mana
Creation bonus / quest bonus: 100 mana
Trader bonuses: 11*6 mana = 66 mana
Trading profit: 7 mana
-100+100+66+7 = 73

@4fa lol nice. I had looked at the market creation time and figured it would have the bonus, bought YES. when creators comment above said they probably didn't get the bonus I sold it all without bothering to check the balance log

Seems likely