Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ5.2k

2031

John Roberts

32%

Clarence Thomas

56%

Samuel Alito

Sonia Sotomayor

1.3%

Elena Kagan

0.2%

Neil Gorsuch

0.2%

Brett Kavanaugh

1.6%

Amy Coney Barrett

1.6%

Ketanji Brown Jackson

A Justice not yet seated

If it's multiple justices simultaneously, this market will resolve to an per-person split of all correct answers (eg: if there were 11 Justices and all 11 left, it would resolve with each current member AND 2 shares on A Justice not yet seated

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?

Whose departure will cause the next vacant U.S. Supreme Court seat ?

Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?

Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

82% chance

Will Sotomayor leave next?

8% chance

Who will be the next member of the Supreme Court to vacate the bench?

Will a Supreme Court Justice retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?

53% chance

Will Alito leave next?

53% chance

Will Kavanaugh leave next?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ1 YES

@mods I am incapable of buying any YES on any of the 0% options. I keep getting this screen (seen below), but only when I tap YES. I do not get this screen when I tap NO on those options. I think this is a bug.

Possibly a divide-by-zero error? 😆

looking into this btw

bought Ṁ1 YES

Amy Coney Barrett is YES-able now. The remaining 2 are still bugged.

Bug report is here: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/bounty-for-reporting-manifold-bugs#4ja73hq22op

Bounty for reporting Manifold bugs

Post a comment with a bug you came across and earn mana! Anything that affects the user experience counts! Even poor design, missing functionality, or specific complaints can count as long as they are things we can fix. Get M250 if you are first and it's something we want to fix. Get up to M5000 for finding an important bug! Being clear and concise in helping us reproduce the bug also can increase your bounty.

bought Ṁ1 YES

Issue resolved, I think. I was able to put Mana on YES for an option reporting as 0%.

Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition