This question resolves to my best guess by one month after EAG.

For this market, I will weight professional/impact-oriented goals (e.g. meeting donors or potential hires, or helping others) at 75%, and personal goals (e.g. making personal connections, scoping out whether Boston is a better place to live than the Bay) at 25%.

The counterfactual is me remaining in Berkeley. It's hard to predict activities a month in the future, but most likely I'll do a combination of grant evaluations, fundraising, and public communications. I estimate the trip to cost ~1.5 workdays (~0.5 each from flights, being distracted, and needing to recuperate after the conference) and ~2 weekend days, plus maybe* $1k in hotel costs (surprisingly expensive atm).

I will resolve it to ex-post rather than ex ante estimates (e.g. if I talk to a large donor at EAG but nothing came out of it, I count that as ~neutral).

Note that you might be hit by "bad luck" by the resolution criteria (e.g. if I get covid I might resolve as negative even if the rest of the conference goes fine, if I meet someone awesome at the airport but hate the rest of EAG it might resolve positive)

*though as a commenter pointed out, I might be able to get free lodging.