
Will "Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
4
Ṁ1kṀ740Feb 1
8%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating reward tampering in large language models is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will "CFAR Takeaways: Andrew Critch" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "Solemn Courage" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "On "ChatGPT Psychosis" and LLM Sycophancy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "Reviewing LessWrong: Screwtape's Basic Answer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "Making deals with early schemers" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
23% chance
Will "This is a review of the reviews" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
8% chance
Will "It's hard to make scheming evals look realist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "People Seem Funny In The Head About Subtle Si..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "The Intelligence Curse" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "The Best Lack All Conviction: A Confusing Day..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance