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Will "How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Mar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
8
Ṁ1kṀ2.4k
Feb 1
21%
chance

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Markets and Love the Arbitrage is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

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LessWrong Annual Review
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bought Ṁ100 NO

10% is way too high, but everyone playing the game of trying to make mana on Manifold doesn't have an incentive to buy No on this question when there are far more profitable questions resolving much sooner to bet on instead.

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