Will "AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
2
Ṁ1kṀ222027
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2025 Update is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "2025 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
18% chance
Will "How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
43% chance
Will "AI 2027: Responses" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Timaeus in 2024" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
8% chance
Will "2024 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
85% chance
Will "AI in 2025: gestalt" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "A History of the Future, 2025-2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Thoughts on AI 2027" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
16% chance