If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
24
1kṀ7402031
20%
Lawsuits & civil disputes
29%
Legislation/treaties
2%
Economic crash
12%
War
0.1%
Sabotage
37%
Natural limits / diminishing returns
0.1%
Something else
Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?
Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.
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Possible to see an “AI fall” as video or motion control are just very expensive.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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