Resolution criteria

The National Court of Spain has opened preliminary proceedings against former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero for his alleged collaboration with the criminal structure of the regime of Nicolás Maduro, following a lawsuit filed by the organization Hazte Oír. This market resolves YES if Zapatero is formally tried (indicted and arraigned) in any court of law—Spanish, U.S., or international—for crimes related to his involvement with Maduro's government. This includes charges such as drug trafficking, money laundering, or membership in a criminal organization. The market resolves NO if preliminary proceedings are dismissed, closed without charges, or if no formal trial occurs by a specified deadline. Resolution will be determined by official court documents and credible news reporting from major outlets covering Spanish and international legal proceedings.

Background

Spain's National Court has initiated proceedings against former prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero following a complaint filed by the Spanish conservative Catholic organisation Hazte Oír, stemming from allegations of Zapatero's alleged collaboration with the regime of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, recently captured by US forces. The complaint argues that Zapatero maintained a "continued, direct, and privileged" relationship with Maduro and other Venezuelan officials, allegedly contributing to the regime's international operations and providing political cover, pointing to Zapatero's role as a mediator and election observer in Venezuela. U.S. authorities from the Southern District of New York are pushing for the initiation of criminal proceedings against the former Spanish president after Hugo "El Pollo" Carvajal provided documentation and testimonies regarding Zapatero's relationship with the power structure of Chavismo, with information pointing to alleged payments to Zapatero from the Venezuelan government through PDVSA.

Considerations

A previous attempt to criminally investigate Zapatero was made when six Venezuelan citizens filed a lawsuit against him for crimes against humanity, but the National Court dismissed the case because it was based solely on journalistic reports and provided "no objective data" linking him to the events. The current Spanish proceedings remain in preliminary stages, and the judge has requested a report from the Public Prosecutor's Office on whether the National Court has jurisdiction to proceed.