Resolution criteria

The Trump Administration has called Maduro's government "illegitimate" and accused the Venezuelan President of being a "narco-terrorist". This market resolves YES if Trump grants Maduro a pardon before leaving office. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the White House or Trump's social media accounts. The market resolves NO if Trump's presidency ends without such a pardon being issued.

Background

Trump has taken very different approaches in his relationships with the two men—threatening to deploy military force in an escalating pressure campaign against one, while offering the other clemency, referring to Maduro and former Honduran President Hernández respectively. Hernández, who received a 45-year sentence for conspiring with some of the most powerful drug traffickers in the world to transport an estimated 400 tons of cocaine into the U.S., was released from prison on Tuesday after Trump pardoned him in December 2025. Trump said the United States had captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro after carrying out a "large-scale" strike against the country, following months of pressure from the Trump Administration on Maduro to cede power in the South American country over long-standing accusations of involvement in drug trafficking and election rigging.

Considerations

Several lawmakers have pointed out the inconsistency in pardoning Hernández while going after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is wanted in the US for similar charges. However, the recent military escalation and reported capture of Maduro represents a fundamentally different posture than the diplomatic approach taken toward Hernández, making a pardon scenario substantially less likely than it was for the former Honduran leader.