Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if the Republican Party holds more than 215 seats in the United States House of Representatives following the next midterm elections. It resolves to "NO" if the Republican Party holds 215 or fewer seats.

The final seat count will be determined by the official certified results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives upon the commencement of the subsequent congressional session. Official updates can be tracked at https://www.fec.gov/ and https://clerk.house.gov/.

Background

The United States House of Representatives consists of 435 voting members. A party requires a simple majority—218 seats—to secure control of the chamber. A threshold of 215 seats indicates a closely divided House where neither party holds a comfortable majority, often necessitating cross-aisle cooperation or highlighting the significance of smaller voting blocs within the parties. Midterm elections historically serve as a referendum on the incumbent administration, and seat totals are subject to shifts based on redistricting, national polling trends, and local candidate performance.

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