Crash of Learjet 55 - NTSB's determined primary cause

Ṁ150Ṁ150

resolved Jan 30

100%42%

The NTSB does not release a final report by December 31, 2025.

17%

The NTSB's final report explicitly states that pilot error (from any aircraft) was the primary cause of the crash.

17%

The NTSB's final report explicitly states that electrical or mechanical failure (whether due to unknown causes or explicitly due to a maintenance error) was the primary cause of the crash.

The NTSB's final report explicitly states that air traffic control error or any other form of air transport support staff error (excluding maintenance of the aircraft) was the primary cause of the crash.

1.5%

The NTSB's final report explicitly states that an intentional pilot action (suicide, terrorism, etc.) (from any aircraft) was the primary cause of the crash.

The NTSB's final report does not explicitly state that any of the above causes were the primary cause of the crash.

10%

The final report identifies multiple equal primary causes of the crash.

8%Other

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will investigate the crash of a medical Learjet 55 which occurred on Jan 31, 2025.

Intentional acts such as terrorism, suicide, or other forms will not be considered "errors" for the purpose of resolution.

Sources for resolution: NTSB Aviation Accident Reports (https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/Investigations.aspx)

Note that this is for the PRIMARY cause of the crash. To trade on ANY cause the NTSB considers to have contributed to the crash, I have established a second market to trade here.

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