MANIFOLD
Will the new ebola epidemic cause deaths outside Congo before 2031?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ189
resolved Dec 7
Resolved
NO

Today, September 4th 2025, Congo declared a new ebola epidemic. Will there be deaths due to it declared by governments, officials or reputable health organizations, outside of Congo before 1st Jan 2031?

  • Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the outbreak is declared over, the market will resolve NO, regardless of whether deaths occurred outside Congo during the defined scope of the market duration given at market creation.

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@traders The outbreak is declared over. By default, given that there was no news of the outbreak spreading outside Congo, which I will double-check and triple check, this will resolve NO, unless persuasively challenged. I'll leave it up for a few days to allow challenge, which could include reportage that there were deaths outside Congo?

@traders I think I need to clarify, that if the outbreak is declared over, my sense is that this market would have to resolve NO.

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