MANIFOLD
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?
38
Ṁ1kṀ3.5k
2028
20%
chance

Question is spanning a number of possible outcomes, including Trump winning in '24 and then seeking a third term.

He needs to say it. If his proxies float it and then he backs away from the idea it won't count.

I will not bet in this market.

  • Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an announcement to count towards a YES resolution, it must be definitive.

    • Conditional statements (e.g., "I could," "I might," "I am thinking about") will not count.

    • Definitive statements (e.g., "I am running," "I will run") will count.

Market context
Trump
Republican Party
US Democracy
2024 US Presidential Election
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you said "if his proxies float it"

what if he floats it but isn't really serious about it?

@realDonaldTrump if what he said is conditional (I could, I might, I am thinking about, people want me to) it doesn't count. If it's definitve (I am running, I will run) it does count.

Is really ending in 20 min?

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