Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?
10
190Ṁ2922026
71%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
China here meaning either the state or a Chinese company.
Stage must land under its own power, without the use of parachutes.
Comment clarification: it must be the first stage of an orbital rocket, and the upper most stage of that rocket must achieve orbit on the same launch. It does not need to deliver a payload to orbit.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
78% chance
Non-SpaceX propulsive first stage landing by 2025?
33% chance
Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?
20% chance
Will China launch and operate a fully reusable spacecraft by 2030?
58% chance
Will China complete a successful manned mission to the lunar surface by the end of 2026?
8% chance
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
80% chance
Will China land someone on the moon on this year?
Will a nuclear propelled rocket be tested in space before 2027?
16% chance
Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030?
10% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
89% chance
Sort by:
Successful 'hop' test from Chinese company iSpace
https://x.com/SpaceNews_Inc/status/1720085942135116152?s=20
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
78% chance
Non-SpaceX propulsive first stage landing by 2025?
33% chance
Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?
20% chance
Will China launch and operate a fully reusable spacecraft by 2030?
58% chance
Will China complete a successful manned mission to the lunar surface by the end of 2026?
8% chance
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
80% chance
Will China land someone on the moon on this year?
Will a nuclear propelled rocket be tested in space before 2027?
16% chance
Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030?
10% chance
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
89% chance