MANIFOLD
When will China release the Taiwanese (and Indonesian) fishermen seized on July 2nd 2024?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ481
resolved May 29
100%82%
Within one year (August 1 2024 - July 2 2025)
2%
Within one day (end of July 3)
0.8%
Within one week (July 4 - July 9)
4%
Within one month (July 10 - July 31)
11%
Not within one year

"Taiwan has called on China to release a fishing boat carrying five people that it said was seized by the Chinese coast guard in waters near Taiwanese outlying islands."

Resolves to the date that the last fishermen held is released. Will resolve to 'Not within one year' if any of them die in Chinese custody.

https://hongkongfp.com/2024/07/03/china-urged-to-release-fishing-boat-carrying-5-crew-seized-off-taiwans-kinmen-islands/

Market context
Geopolitics
China
Taiwan
China Taiwan potential conflict
Indonesia
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https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2024/11/17/2003827038

Captain was released in November

sold Ṁ23 YES

I have not been able to find anything saying they have been released, so the first two should resolve NO.

Agreed. Feel free to bet them to zero before I do so shortly

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 20% order

Oh, obviously I can't because the answers are not independent

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