Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
23
1kṀ37662027
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Trump is placed under house arrest as a result of a criminal conviction or as a result of a plea deal. Resolution is based on when he actually begins being under house arrest, not when it is announced. Resolves NO otherwise on January 1st, 2027.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
If Mr. Trump is placed under house arrest, it is our belief that he may want to join Manifold Markets more than he'd have wanted had he not been placed under a house arrest.
In the case of such an event, we advertise the following market:
Based on the description, it looks like this does NOT include house arrest while pending trial (a la SBF (formerly))?
predictedNO
Correct, only as part of a sentence, after a conviction or deal
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027?
2% chance
When will Trump serve time?
Will Donald Trump serve any prison time before 2026?
2% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?
6% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence by the end of 2025?
1% chance
If Donald Trump wins the election, will he serve time in 2025?
1% chance
If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
70% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026?
1% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2028?
1% chance