Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
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372
Ṁ210kJan 2
9%
Jean-Marie Le Pen
9%
Jimmy Carter (99)
7%
Sonny Rollins
6%
Buzz Aldrin
6%
Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud
5%
David Attenborough (97)
5%
Clint Eastwood
5%
Eva Marie Saint
5%
Chuck Grassley
5%
Mel Brooks (97)
5%
Noam Chomsky (95)
5%
Chevy Chase
5%
Ramzan Kadyrov (47)
5%
Dick Van Dyke (98)
5%
Bruce Willis
5%
William Shatner
5%
Michael Caine
5%
Patrick Stewart
5%
Axl Rose
5%
Donald Knuth
Feel free to submit the names of any living public figures you think people would be interested in knowing the odds of survival for. Any duplicates or non-public-figures will be N/A-ed. If someone on this list has died, I will resolve their name to YES. At the end of 2024, all remaining names will resolve to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Joshua Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif are confirmed dead at this point though multiple outlets
Please consider adding Willie Nelson after the next cull. He has even self-memed about it “The Internet said I had passed away”
@ZaneMiller Manifold changed the rules about how many options could be in a market and people had added a bunch of options taking up space that I thought made the market worse
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