MANIFOLD
When will Bitcoin market cap exceed Gold market cap?
11
Ṁ452Ṁ2k
2030
0.3%
2023-2024
1%
2025
3%
2026
3%
2027
1.1%
2028
1.1%
2029
91%
Later/Never

Gold marketcap = gold price * total gold ever mined

Resolves to the first time that bitcoin's market cap exceeds gold's

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The best estimates currently available suggest that around 208,874 tonnes of gold has been mined throughout history

At the current price of $66.44 per gram, this is a market cap of $13.878T.

CoinMarketCap has Bitcoin market cap currently around $831B.

56% chance of 16x BTC price within 4 years makes it a damn good investment even if it might go to zero in all the other timelines. That puts a lower bound of 73% on E(CAGR) if you limit sell your bitcoins at the target price.

I’m kinda surprised manifold is so btc maxi that it’s expecting 85% chance of BTC/gold flippening by 2029. That’s even higher than me.

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