Age of death multi-market

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.8kṀ2k

3001

91%

Chris Mirabile

90%

@JonathanRay

88%

Donald Knuth

88%

Bill Gates

87%

Scott Alexander

87%

@Mira

86%

Jeff Bezos

86%

Michelle Obama

86%

Joe Biden

86%

Donald Trump

85%

Peter Thiel

85%

Bryan Johnson

85%

@MarcusAbramovitch

85%

@Joshua

84%

Xi Jinping

83%

Destiny

83%

Ray Kurzweil

82%

King Charles III

80%

Elon Musk

79%

Aella

Each market resolves PROB to the age at which the person dies. 100+ resolves YES.

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Death markets

Life & Death

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Will Someone Join This Market Who Will Live To The Year 2110?

61% chance

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@JonathanRay Jesse Jackson died at 84 a few days ago. Shouldn’t that resolve?

bought Ṁ30 YES

bought Ṁ1 NO

@Simon74fe @JonathanRay Resolves 88

Is this actually correct at 80%? Why would he be a forerunner for President if he's not expected to live out the term. Something doesn't add up here.

People are also trading

Biden Death Markets [May 31 - June 27, 2026]

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Weekly Biden Death Markets [July 26 - August 22, 2026]

Will Someone Join This Market Who Will Live To The Year 2110?

61% chance

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