To qualify for a "YES" answer, Texas must either:
1. Elect a Democrat to a state-wide office (Governor, Comptroller, SCOTX Justice, Railroad Commissioner, etc.)
2. Elect a Democrat to represent the entire state of Texas in federal govenment (US Senator)
3. Send Democratic electors for the presidency because the population voted for the Democratic candidate. Faithless electors don't count. If Texas decides to split its electors, and that split delegation includes a Democrat, it counts.
Elected officials for a county, city, or house district don't count. It must be someone who represents all of Texas.
If this hasn't happened by the start of 2050, this question will resolve to "2050 or later".
Update 2025-10-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Texas meets the above criteria during the missing 2040–2044 window, the market will resolve to N/A.
1,000People are also trading
@ChinmayTheMathGuy I can't believe it till me this long to realize I forgot that. Yeah, I'll resolve to N/A if that's the case
@dittopoop Given that this market is a bit looser in acceptance criteria, and the same range is currently sitting at 8% compared to 14% for that market, it does seem like there's an opportunity for some arbitrage.