Kalshi's version of this market

(Don't see any obvious differences between them. Kalshi has another market for "will it show on the ballot")

@DannyqnOht on a 5k volume, i don't think that's predicting much

What are you going to use to resolve the "because the mob demands it" part of the question?

@WilliamGunn Seriously? The resolution criteria are in the description man I don't know what to tell you. If a ballot measure like this passes, that is "the mob demanding it", the title is obviously me commenting on how ridiculous I find the situation.

@JohnDavidPressman Should I post a question asking "Will the sun rise tomorrow because @JohnDavidPressman is a big dummy?" You make a mockery of the market. Editorializing belongs in the description..

@WilliamGunn It's Manifold, you can in fact do that if you want bro.

If it passes but is put on hold by court injunction, so that it's not actually in effect by the end of 2026, how does this resolve?

@NicholasWeininger The question says "get on the ballot and pass", so if it passes but gets held up by a court injunction this resolves YES because the market is about whether it will pass. Yes this is technically at odds with the title but I hadn't considered that outcome when writing the title. The title was meant to be cheeky, always read resolution criteria etc.

@JohnDavidPressman Thanks for the clarification. I've created a variant of the question to enable betting on whether the tax actually takes effect (allowing for some slack time to resolve court challenges): https://manifold.markets/NicholasWeininger/will-the-proposed-california-wealth

This tax was dumb and avarice based, and passed, so I don't know why the wealth tax wouldn't also pass:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Mental_Health_Services_Act