How much money will MIRI raise in their 2025 fundraiser?

Ṁ1.1kṀ22k

resolved Jan 1

100%23%

3m < n <= 4m

0.6%

n <= 1m

0.5%

1m < n <= 2m

65%

2m < n <= 3m

4m < n <= 5m

5m < n <= 6m

6m < n

0.9%Other

MIRI is currently doing their 2025 fundraiser. As of right now on December 8th when I create this market they have raised $196,476. What will the total raise be when the fundraiser ends at midnight on December 31st?

If the fundraiser closes early, resolves to whatever the total is at that time. If they close the fundraiser and get funding from another source that doesn't count, the value must appear on this page. Whatever the last available number on this page is, is how the market resolves.

https://intelligence.org/2025/12/01/miris-2025-fundraiser/

Options should be read as:

"less than or equal to 1 million"

"greater than 1 million but less than or equal to 2 million"

. . .

"greater than six million"

Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the fundraiser page continues to update the total after the original fundraiser end date (December 31st at midnight), the market will resolve based on the amount shown at that original end date, not any later updates.

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I thought it would keep going up because it was a conditional match and they had to get it donated to get the full amount. And the people who wanted to donate the most would wait until the end and get the people who are incentivised only by the match to donate first as they may not have donated if matching program was used up

bought Ṁ100 YES

Resolution question, what if they continue updating the total on the linked page after the time they said the fundraiser would end?

@eapache That's a really good question, I feel like the fairest outcome is to cut it off at the original fundraiser end date because that's what everyone bought with their estimates in respect to. For similar reasons to why "MIRI shuts down the fundraiser and finds a single donor to give them 4 million" wouldn't count.

bought Ṁ50 NO

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 2% order

Someone refunded a donation? 😂

sold Ṁ2 YES

This is such a weird donation pattern. Typically fundraisers get basically all of their donations early and once the needle stops moving it doesn’t start again, but this one seems to be have a start/stop thing going on. Maybe a few whales waiting until the last minute to donate?

@eapache It's very strange yeah. I assume they're actively soliciting donations during the fundraiser and the donation activity reflects that? I know it's relatively few people because a guy I know has been scraping it to see when the numbers change specifically.