MANIFOLD
How long will I travel in Japan this year (# nights)?
3
Ṁ1kṀ539
2027
34.6 nights
expected
10%
0 - 6
18%
7 - 14
21%
15 - 30
35%
31 - 60
16%
61 - 90

I do not know Japanese at all, but I am reasonably confident that this won't be a huge obstacle, considering modern technology and US cultural dominance. I have not been to Japan in the last 30 years.
I've been solo traveling/roadtripping for just over half of 2025 (184 days, between late April and mid Dec). I am seriously considering traveling to Japan once I finish the 48 states. (related market: https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/roadtrip-will-i-complete-my-trip-an)

This market will resolve to the number of nights I spend in Japan in the calendar year 2026.
If I do not visit Japan in 2026, this market will resolve to the 0-6 bucket.
If I stay more than 90 days (due to gaining employment or requiring additional visa things) this market will resolve to the 61-90 bucket.

Related market: will I be in Japan on August 1, 2026? https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/roadtrip-where-will-i-end-up-in-one
Will I have a new job by August 1, 2026? https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/roadtrip-will-i-be-gainfully-employ

I will not bet in this market other than to bet NO in the 0-6 night bucket to encourage myself to take this potential travel more seriously.

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opened a Ṁ500 NO at 10% order

I've booked flights in on March 17 to Tokyo and out on April 3 from Kyoto, at which point I mean to complete my 48 state roadtrip.
Planning to return in September if this shorter goes well.

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