Which countries will the United States be at war with by the end of 2025?
46
1.1kṀ2932
Jan 2
42%
Venezuela
11%
Yemen
11%
Iran
5%
Palestine
3%
North Korea
3%
Russia
2%
China

Which countries will the United States be at war with by the end of 2025? Can add answers. Closes January 1st 2026

  • Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Formal declaration of war is not required. The market will count conflicts that meet common-sense definitions of war, even if officially termed differently (e.g., "special military operations" or "police actions"). The creator will use discernment and reject state propaganda that contradicts common sense when determining what constitutes a war.

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Does it count as a war if war has not been officially declared?

@CornCasting In the case of the United States and large regional powers that is the normal way to prosecute a war. So I think yes. Obviously discernment is still necessary, but I don't feel the need to argue against Russia's reasoning for 'special military operation", or against the definition of Vietnam as a "police action". Conversely, North Korea's understanding of the Korean war as continuous over 70 years is also not worthy of respect, even though it matches the letter of international war. State's logic will be observed but rejected whenever it violates common sense for blatant propagandistic purposes

Thoughts on recent developments?

The United States has officially bombed Quds Force, but I feel like resolving Yes for Iran would not be appreciated.

how does this resolve if the US doesn't go to war?

@Stralor No for all.

@JessicaEvans ah, of course! thanks

Depending on how you define “at war”, the US has technically been at war with North Korea continuously since 1950. Just wanted to confirm that you won’t count that, or any other technical case that is already happening.

@Gabrielle No. Really mean it in the practical sense of shooting war. Although if the United states goes to war with any of these countries and "finishes" before the end of 2025 that is still intended to count.

@JessicaEvans Some countries are in a state of civil war. Does the US intervening in favor of one faction count?

@mariopasquato No, although I can't offer reasoning beyond that not being intended. The intent was a shooting war against an officially recognized government. Salami tactics and proxy wars complicate things by definition so I think there's an element of judgement no matter what unfortunately.

@JessicaEvans So how you resolve for Yemen will depend on whether you consider the Houthis just a (winning) faction in a civil war in Yemen or the de facto government of Yemen.

@mariopasquato I'm leaning no, simply because it's contested, though I could be swayed, particularly by evidence of diplomatic recognition. Right now the Houthis are only engaged with by Iran, right? Sovereignty is not owned by the west, but I'd have to see engagement with them politically by other Iran friendly sovereigns basically: Russia, China, etc.

@JessicaEvans They don’t seem to have international recognition at this point. Also territorial control is not complete.

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