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MANIFOLD
How many civilians will federal LEO or military shoot with lethal munitions in California in the next 12 months
6
Ṁ1kṀ779
Aug 1
27%
0
39%
1-10
13%
11-50
9%
51-100
7%
101-250
5%
Over 250

The situation in California is escalating. Place your bets on how far it will go.

  • Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they do not have a specific data source for resolution.

They will resolve the market based on a consensus from the community.

  • Update 2026-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve using federal law enforcement data and news articles from papers of record, though paywalls may limit this approach.

Market context
California
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This is nearing close. I will start looking for available federal law enforcement data and news articles in papers of record. Because of pay walls this approach may be more limited than ideal, but suggestions are welcome.

bought Ṁ100 YES

In an average year, federal law enforcement officers shoot 50-60 people. In California, that means you would expect 5-6 fatalities in an average year.
How are you planning to collect the data to resolve this? It will not necessarily be easy to determine the answer.

@LarsOsborne In good faith I have to admit that I have no idea. Open to following any consensus.

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